* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 83 74 67 53 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 90 83 74 67 53 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 95 90 84 78 72 61 51 44 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 26 26 34 36 27 19 26 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 2 -2 3 3 13 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 13 9 2 11 352 340 294 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.1 23.7 21.5 17.2 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 128 124 119 103 93 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 111 109 107 95 87 77 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 -0.5 -0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 47 47 51 56 51 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 17 17 15 11 8 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -121 -133 -138 -146 -106 -82 -69 -21 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -15 -45 -15 14 1 -20 8 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -2 4 12 29 36 5 -79 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1457 1377 1292 1185 1066 797 1065 1500 660 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.2 34.2 35.7 37.1 40.5 44.2 47.8 51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.3 56.8 56.3 55.0 53.6 48.1 39.9 30.2 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 15 18 22 32 37 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 13 9 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -24. -34. -43. -47. -50. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -16. -14. -15. -15. -13. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -21. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -21. -28. -42. -56. -73. -72. -77. -79. -81. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 32.1 57.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 792.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.16 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/28/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 90 83 74 67 53 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 87 78 71 57 43 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 82 75 61 47 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 78 64 50 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 62 48 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 90 81 75 72 65 51 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 90 83 74 68 64 50 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS