* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 86 80 73 60 46 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 91 86 80 73 60 46 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 95 91 87 82 76 66 55 46 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 23 25 32 28 29 27 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 1 1 1 -2 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 3 16 5 3 358 330 299 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 25.2 22.1 18.1 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 132 128 124 112 95 82 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 113 111 110 103 89 79 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 6 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 47 45 46 54 53 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 17 14 12 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -102 -123 -128 -139 -121 -70 -72 0 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -24 -12 -48 -11 24 0 5 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 4 17 31 46 -23 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1530 1451 1372 1279 1174 857 812 1340 1015 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.3 33.1 34.4 35.6 39.1 42.9 46.7 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.2 57.1 57.0 56.2 55.4 51.3 44.3 35.1 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 14 19 28 35 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -23. -33. -41. -46. -49. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -14. -16. -15. -14. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -24. -24. -25. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -22. -35. -49. -63. -81. -86. -88. -90. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 31.4 57.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.04 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 836.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.12 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/28/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 91 86 80 73 60 46 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 89 83 76 63 49 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 85 78 65 51 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 78 65 51 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 63 49 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 91 82 76 73 65 51 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 91 86 77 71 67 53 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS