* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 95 90 84 69 57 45 33 28 25 23 21 V (KT) LAND 100 98 95 90 84 69 57 45 33 28 25 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 95 90 84 73 62 52 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 18 20 24 26 31 33 23 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 -1 0 0 1 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 348 12 18 11 15 340 323 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.1 22.6 21.0 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 135 132 129 119 97 91 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 114 113 112 112 108 90 86 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -52.3 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 44 45 46 48 55 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 21 20 16 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -100 -117 -125 -129 -52 0 -5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -20 -42 -22 -30 11 49 26 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 0 9 32 39 52 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1599 1525 1452 1372 1294 1066 746 1053 1409 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.5 32.1 33.1 34.1 37.1 40.9 44.7 48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.2 57.4 57.0 56.6 53.8 48.4 39.8 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 11 15 24 33 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 12 12 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -24. -34. -43. -48. -52. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -7. -12. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -16. -31. -43. -55. -67. -72. -75. -77. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.8 57.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 863.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.09 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 63.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/27/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 95 90 84 69 57 45 33 28 25 23 21 18HR AGO 100 99 96 91 85 70 58 46 34 29 26 24 22 12HR AGO 100 97 96 91 85 70 58 46 34 29 26 24 22 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 84 69 57 45 33 28 25 23 21 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 66 54 42 30 25 22 20 18 IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 73 61 49 37 32 29 27 25 IN 12HR 100 98 95 86 80 76 64 52 40 35 32 30 28