* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 96 93 88 76 62 51 56 51 49 46 44 V (KT) LAND 100 99 96 93 88 76 62 51 56 51 49 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 97 93 89 79 68 62 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 14 22 35 29 35 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -2 1 0 0 0 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 325 338 358 10 3 359 319 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.6 26.6 24.7 21.9 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 135 132 124 109 94 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 116 114 114 111 101 88 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 44 45 43 48 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 20 19 19 14 13 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -80 -91 -99 -118 -128 -144 -90 -64 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -28 -19 -37 -35 -4 26 46 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 5 5 22 53 14 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1625 1612 1555 1468 1382 1154 823 853 1346 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.8 31.2 32.1 33.0 35.9 39.6 43.8 48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.5 56.8 57.1 57.1 57.0 55.1 50.2 43.0 34.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 9 13 22 30 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 12 12 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -22. -32. -42. -47. -50. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -9. -11. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -12. -24. -38. -49. -44. -49. -51. -54. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.3 56.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 833.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.12 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/27/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 99 96 93 88 76 62 51 56 51 49 46 44 18HR AGO 100 99 96 93 88 76 62 51 56 51 49 46 44 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 88 76 62 51 56 51 49 46 44 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 85 73 59 48 53 48 46 43 41 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 69 55 44 49 44 42 39 37 IN 6HR 100 99 90 84 81 74 60 49 54 49 47 44 42 IN 12HR 100 99 96 87 81 77 63 52 57 52 50 47 45