* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 96 95 93 84 72 62 67 63 61 58 56 V (KT) LAND 95 95 96 95 93 84 72 62 67 63 61 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 95 95 94 92 89 81 72 68 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 13 16 24 31 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -2 -1 0 0 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 343 317 322 329 357 8 10 334 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.1 26.0 22.1 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 137 134 127 119 94 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 115 115 113 111 108 88 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -54.8 -54.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 11 9 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 43 44 43 43 44 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 21 22 21 19 17 15 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -75 -87 -99 -117 -143 -61 -10 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -27 -31 -29 -39 -33 12 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 1 1 4 5 33 32 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1638 1643 1589 1511 1432 1254 1022 734 1004 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.5 30.9 31.6 32.3 34.5 37.5 41.4 45.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.0 56.5 57.0 57.2 57.4 56.5 53.5 47.6 39.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 9 15 25 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 12 14 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -19. -27. -35. -40. -43. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -0. -2. -11. -23. -33. -28. -32. -34. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 30.1 56.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 801.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.16 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 66.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.2% 2.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/27/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 96 95 93 84 72 62 67 63 61 58 56 18HR AGO 95 94 95 94 92 83 71 61 66 62 60 57 55 12HR AGO 95 92 91 90 88 79 67 57 62 58 56 53 51 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 83 74 62 52 57 53 51 48 46 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 67 55 45 50 46 44 41 39 IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 70 58 48 53 49 47 44 42 IN 12HR 95 95 96 87 81 77 65 55 60 56 54 51 49