* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 92 93 93 95 89 81 68 82 66 48 58 V (KT) LAND 90 91 92 93 93 95 89 81 68 82 66 48 58 V (KT) LGEM 90 92 93 92 92 91 86 77 70 67 56 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 8 10 8 5 19 28 30 7 10 43 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -6 -4 1 0 0 -1 17 18 13 2 SHEAR DIR 85 60 352 326 334 304 11 14 2 17 255 256 268 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.6 26.8 25.6 22.7 18.2 15.9 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 139 139 137 132 125 115 98 82 77 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 117 117 116 114 112 110 105 91 78 73 71 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.2 -55.8 -55.6 -55.4 -53.9 -53.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -50.0 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 8 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 45 45 42 45 43 41 40 45 53 56 47 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 18 19 20 22 20 20 15 33 26 19 33 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -63 -67 -80 -77 -99 -130 -160 -61 33 128 142 194 200 MB DIV -29 1 0 -10 -15 -18 -45 -17 43 55 35 30 38 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 1 4 12 42 -71 -132 -32 -11 LAND (KM) 1808 1756 1706 1682 1661 1542 1396 1220 916 826 1298 1176 505 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.5 31.5 33.1 35.4 38.6 42.3 46.6 49.8 52.0 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.0 54.8 55.5 56.2 56.7 56.5 54.7 51.0 44.7 35.7 26.7 17.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 5 7 11 18 26 34 36 32 30 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 15 14 14 12 15 10 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -21. -26. -32. -37. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. 3. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -6. 16. 7. -4. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. -1. -9. -22. -8. -24. -42. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 29.9 53.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 723.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.23 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 75.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 6.7% 4.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 11 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/26/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 91 92 93 93 95 89 81 68 82 66 48 58 18HR AGO 90 89 90 91 91 93 87 79 66 80 64 46 56 12HR AGO 90 87 86 87 87 89 83 75 62 76 60 42 52 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 80 82 76 68 55 69 53 35 45 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 73 67 59 46 60 44 26 36 IN 6HR 90 91 82 76 73 74 68 60 47 61 45 27 37 IN 12HR 90 91 92 83 77 73 67 59 46 60 44 26 36