* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 87 88 90 92 92 84 74 64 78 68 58 V (KT) LAND 85 86 87 88 90 92 92 84 74 64 78 68 58 V (KT) LGEM 85 87 88 89 89 89 86 80 72 69 65 53 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 4 6 2 12 20 26 25 5 12 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 0 -2 -2 0 1 2 -2 15 21 25 SHEAR DIR 81 78 55 348 302 274 358 11 17 356 111 237 264 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.3 24.2 22.2 17.6 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 137 138 139 137 134 130 120 105 95 81 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 116 116 117 117 114 112 112 107 96 88 77 74 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.4 -56.1 -55.8 -55.7 -54.7 -53.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 5 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 43 45 44 44 44 42 41 40 53 54 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 21 19 15 32 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -68 -67 -68 -78 -86 -118 -150 -116 13 92 128 154 200 MB DIV -13 -23 -7 3 1 -15 -46 -24 8 70 66 28 31 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 0 1 0 1 10 23 51 -89 -53 -24 LAND (KM) 1847 1822 1782 1740 1685 1581 1470 1329 1122 808 889 1449 886 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.6 31.2 32.1 33.9 36.6 40.0 43.8 47.3 50.5 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.0 53.9 54.7 55.5 56.5 57.0 56.1 53.8 49.2 42.5 33.5 22.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 7 13 21 28 34 37 38 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 17 16 14 12 12 13 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -31. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 6. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. 14. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. -1. -11. -21. -7. -17. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 30.1 52.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.86 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.34 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 656.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.30 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 60.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 14.9% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 6.8% 4.3% 2.3% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 7.3% 5.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/26/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 86 87 88 90 92 92 84 74 64 78 68 58 18HR AGO 85 84 85 86 88 90 90 82 72 62 76 66 56 12HR AGO 85 82 81 82 84 86 86 78 68 58 72 62 52 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 77 79 79 71 61 51 65 55 45 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 68 68 60 50 40 54 44 34 IN 6HR 85 86 77 71 68 68 68 60 50 40 54 44 34 IN 12HR 85 86 87 78 72 68 68 60 50 40 54 44 34