* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 79 80 81 85 83 75 69 59 80 70 V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 79 80 81 85 83 75 69 59 80 70 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 80 80 81 81 81 79 74 66 60 60 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 11 8 6 4 10 6 16 20 27 32 1 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 -2 -5 -2 0 3 3 -2 14 12 SHEAR DIR 146 109 118 92 38 320 307 336 356 16 5 79 261 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.4 25.1 23.2 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 131 133 134 134 134 132 128 121 111 99 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 111 113 112 111 110 110 109 107 100 91 75 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -56.4 -56.4 -56.0 -55.7 -54.9 -53.8 -52.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.3 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 6 1 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 45 42 43 46 46 44 45 47 58 61 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 18 21 21 19 19 14 34 30 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -66 -71 -69 -77 -84 -92 -121 -148 -146 17 109 194 200 MB DIV -40 -26 -23 -20 10 1 -6 -29 -24 -9 69 54 43 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -1 1 1 4 18 15 71 -64 -35 LAND (KM) 1806 1811 1817 1801 1771 1681 1597 1499 1360 1157 907 936 1286 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.6 31.1 31.7 32.6 34.1 36.3 39.4 42.9 46.8 LONG(DEG W) 50.2 50.8 51.4 52.3 53.1 54.2 54.9 55.0 54.5 52.3 48.1 42.5 35.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 6 5 5 6 11 19 25 29 30 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 15 16 20 24 17 16 18 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 2. 1. -6. 20. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 3. -5. -11. -21. -0. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.6 50.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.85 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.05 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 628.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.32 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 69.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 11.7% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.0% 3.2% 2.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.6% 4.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/25/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 79 79 80 81 85 83 75 69 59 80 70 18HR AGO 80 79 79 79 80 81 85 83 75 69 59 80 70 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 77 78 82 80 72 66 56 77 67 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 71 72 76 74 66 60 50 71 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT