* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 79 79 79 81 81 78 70 62 51 69 V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 79 79 79 81 81 78 70 62 51 69 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 80 80 80 81 80 79 76 70 62 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 8 8 8 9 12 8 17 25 29 31 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 0 0 0 0 -7 1 2 2 1 0 12 SHEAR DIR 175 162 132 102 89 16 346 316 347 359 5 2 64 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 26.8 25.9 24.0 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 130 131 133 134 133 131 124 116 102 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 106 109 110 111 110 110 110 107 103 92 82 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.4 -56.3 -56.5 -56.5 -55.7 -55.7 -54.2 -53.4 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 5 0 700-500 MB RH 50 48 48 46 43 45 48 45 43 41 43 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 14 15 15 16 18 20 21 19 17 13 32 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -74 -63 -70 -73 -80 -91 -91 -118 -160 -144 -2 58 200 MB DIV -29 -35 -37 -25 -23 7 -16 -28 -36 -34 3 68 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 7 34 13 -55 LAND (KM) 1780 1785 1792 1791 1792 1732 1657 1561 1449 1289 1019 879 1036 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.9 31.3 32.1 33.2 35.1 37.8 40.8 44.0 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 50.1 50.5 51.2 51.9 53.3 54.3 54.7 54.6 53.0 50.1 45.8 40.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 5 4 5 8 15 20 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 9 13 16 23 22 17 18 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 2. -1. -7. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. -2. -10. -18. -29. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.9 49.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 589.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.36 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 71.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.5% 3.9% 2.6% 1.2% 1.7% 2.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/25/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 79 79 79 79 81 81 78 70 62 51 69 18HR AGO 80 79 78 78 78 78 80 80 77 69 61 50 68 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 76 76 78 78 75 67 59 48 66 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 70 72 72 69 61 53 42 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT