* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 80 82 84 87 86 91 91 86 78 68 60 V (KT) LAND 80 81 80 82 84 87 86 91 91 86 78 68 60 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 81 83 85 88 88 87 86 81 72 62 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 4 3 5 7 2 8 19 27 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -3 -1 2 -4 -3 -2 2 1 3 -3 5 SHEAR DIR 226 163 152 124 47 33 339 356 353 4 360 356 339 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.7 26.7 26.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 134 136 139 140 140 139 133 123 118 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 106 108 111 113 116 115 114 115 112 107 105 93 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.8 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -55.8 -55.7 -55.1 -54.0 -52.6 -52.3 -51.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 8 3 700-500 MB RH 54 50 48 46 44 44 45 45 44 41 42 54 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 15 16 20 20 19 22 24 24 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -71 -71 -68 -70 -79 -84 -92 -104 -137 -155 -19 79 200 MB DIV -2 -32 -39 -36 -17 5 11 -23 -11 -55 -8 52 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 14 21 54 115 LAND (KM) 1762 1778 1794 1798 1804 1792 1747 1667 1566 1444 1215 982 923 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.0 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.9 31.4 32.2 33.6 35.8 38.5 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 49.4 49.4 49.5 49.9 50.4 51.9 52.9 53.7 54.2 53.6 51.9 48.6 44.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 5 6 4 4 5 10 16 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 7 9 16 21 23 16 21 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 1. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 11. 11. 6. -2. -12. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.1 49.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.02 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 575.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.37 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 78.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/25/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 81 80 82 84 87 86 91 91 86 78 68 60 18HR AGO 80 79 78 80 82 85 84 89 89 84 76 66 58 12HR AGO 80 77 76 78 80 83 82 87 87 82 74 64 56 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 75 74 79 79 74 66 56 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT