* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 81 80 83 84 87 84 82 73 65 55 V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 81 80 83 84 87 84 82 73 65 55 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 81 81 83 87 88 87 84 79 72 62 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 6 5 5 7 7 6 17 23 31 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 1 4 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 224 218 175 158 159 90 28 332 342 344 13 22 21 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.1 27.3 26.4 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 130 132 134 138 139 139 140 137 128 119 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 105 108 111 115 116 114 114 115 109 103 97 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.8 -56.7 -56.2 -56.1 -56.0 -55.5 -55.6 -54.3 -54.1 -52.9 -52.7 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 6 700-500 MB RH 53 53 50 48 46 42 42 43 41 41 41 45 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 17 15 18 19 22 20 22 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -73 -73 -71 -68 -70 -77 -90 -97 -113 -147 -117 12 200 MB DIV -4 -5 -34 -40 -30 -17 0 -16 -32 -22 -54 1 50 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 1 1 9 12 34 36 LAND (KM) 1737 1752 1767 1791 1816 1821 1768 1715 1663 1570 1401 1200 1039 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.2 31.1 30.9 30.6 30.4 30.8 31.1 31.4 32.4 34.1 36.1 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 49.6 49.4 49.1 49.3 49.5 50.9 52.2 53.2 53.8 53.5 52.3 50.3 47.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 6 6 4 3 8 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 5 5 12 18 23 24 13 8 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 1. 2. 4. 2. 4. -1. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 0. 3. 4. 7. 4. 2. -7. -15. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.3 49.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 569.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.38 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 78.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 13.6% 10.8% 7.6% 2.1% 2.7% 3.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 9.4% 3.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/25/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 80 81 80 83 84 87 84 82 73 65 55 18HR AGO 80 79 79 80 79 82 83 86 83 81 72 64 54 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 76 79 80 83 80 78 69 61 51 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 72 73 76 73 71 62 54 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT