* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 84 86 86 85 85 84 87 85 81 70 64 V (KT) LAND 80 83 84 86 86 85 85 84 87 85 81 70 64 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 86 87 87 87 87 85 83 81 77 71 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 6 5 8 6 3 2 4 14 21 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -5 -3 0 -1 -2 -2 5 4 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 226 221 228 169 147 129 77 32 257 276 3 24 19 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 132 135 137 136 138 137 132 125 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 108 108 108 112 114 111 113 113 110 106 100 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.2 -56.6 -56.8 -56.2 -56.1 -55.8 -55.7 -55.4 -54.7 -53.7 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 51 48 44 41 42 42 41 39 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 16 16 16 16 17 20 21 21 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -66 -70 -69 -69 -68 -78 -82 -94 -103 -128 -157 -137 200 MB DIV -21 -7 -20 -38 -32 -15 -1 1 -11 -6 -29 -46 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 10 36 LAND (KM) 1722 1743 1764 1794 1824 1855 1821 1782 1735 1656 1534 1383 1233 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.3 31.1 30.9 30.6 30.2 30.4 30.7 31.1 31.8 32.9 34.3 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 49.9 49.6 49.3 49.1 49.0 49.8 50.9 51.6 52.2 52.5 52.6 51.6 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 3 3 5 6 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 5 5 8 12 15 18 15 10 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -22. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 4. 4. 3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 7. 5. 1. -10. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.4 49.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 539.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.41 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 81.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 20.4% 16.3% 11.2% 2.9% 3.4% 4.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 12.7% 5.4% 3.7% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 18 UTC ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/24/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 84 86 86 85 85 84 87 85 81 70 64 18HR AGO 80 79 80 82 82 81 81 80 83 81 77 66 60 12HR AGO 80 77 76 78 78 77 77 76 79 77 73 62 56 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 69 69 68 71 69 65 54 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 64 64 63 66 64 60 49 43 IN 12HR 80 83 84 75 69 65 65 64 67 65 61 50 44