* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 86 88 87 89 89 88 86 87 79 71 V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 86 88 87 89 89 88 86 87 79 71 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 86 88 88 87 86 85 84 82 80 75 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 3 7 9 11 7 8 5 5 13 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -6 0 -2 -2 -5 0 10 3 0 SHEAR DIR 302 198 213 200 155 143 129 120 137 179 291 21 34 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 132 133 135 137 138 138 135 129 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 109 109 108 108 110 112 115 115 114 111 108 101 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.3 -56.1 -56.6 -56.7 -55.9 -56.0 -55.3 -55.4 -54.7 -54.1 -52.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 54 55 55 53 46 42 40 42 41 41 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 16 18 19 19 20 23 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -68 -67 -70 -63 -66 -66 -70 -72 -85 -88 -119 -157 200 MB DIV -17 -11 -5 -16 -29 -27 -16 -8 -11 -14 -8 -44 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 LAND (KM) 1708 1735 1762 1794 1825 1875 1897 1865 1802 1711 1611 1469 1310 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.3 31.1 30.9 30.6 30.1 29.8 30.0 30.5 31.3 32.2 33.5 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.1 49.8 49.4 49.1 48.9 49.2 50.0 50.9 52.0 52.6 52.6 52.1 51.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 5 5 8 12 15 17 19 13 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 3. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 13. 12. 14. 14. 13. 11. 12. 4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 31.5 50.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 8.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.94 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.04 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 483.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.47 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 87.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.9% 21.6% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 13.2% 8.9% 3.2% 0.6% 3.4% 6.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 11.6% 9.5% 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% 2.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/24/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 84 86 88 87 89 89 88 86 87 79 71 18HR AGO 75 74 78 80 82 81 83 83 82 80 81 73 65 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 75 74 76 76 75 73 74 66 58 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 66 68 68 67 65 66 58 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 84 75 69 65 67 67 66 64 65 57 49