* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 75 78 81 84 85 86 88 85 86 82 75 V (KT) LAND 65 71 75 78 81 84 85 86 88 85 86 82 75 V (KT) LGEM 65 73 79 82 84 86 85 85 84 81 79 77 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 8 4 8 12 10 10 8 3 4 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -4 -6 -2 -1 -2 -5 -5 0 7 0 SHEAR DIR 260 285 189 206 199 164 154 148 124 126 241 348 11 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 131 131 131 132 133 135 137 138 135 129 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 104 106 107 107 108 110 112 114 114 113 108 103 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.3 -56.5 -56.5 -56.9 -56.6 -56.2 -55.9 -55.7 -54.9 -54.6 -53.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 52 55 55 54 49 46 42 44 43 43 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 16 16 17 20 20 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -75 -68 -71 -74 -72 -67 -75 -68 -75 -77 -107 -136 200 MB DIV 0 -12 -9 1 -18 -23 -4 5 4 -10 -12 -32 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1664 1678 1692 1719 1747 1838 1888 1887 1842 1748 1624 1457 1256 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 31.8 31.7 31.5 31.3 30.5 30.0 29.9 30.2 31.0 32.1 33.6 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 50.1 49.9 49.7 49.3 49.0 48.8 49.1 49.9 51.0 51.8 52.1 52.3 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 8 8 11 13 15 17 13 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 7. 6. 7. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 23. 20. 21. 17. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 31.9 50.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 12.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.91 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.11 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.10 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 417.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.53 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 89.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.2% 37.8% 28.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 24.8% 17.4% 9.0% 2.3% 4.6% 7.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 11.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.7% 20.9% 15.4% 3.0% 0.8% 1.5% 2.4% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/24/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 71 75 78 81 84 85 86 88 85 86 82 75 18HR AGO 65 64 68 71 74 77 78 79 81 78 79 75 68 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 70 71 72 74 71 72 68 61 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 61 62 63 65 62 63 59 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT