* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 58 65 72 77 79 81 85 85 83 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 58 65 72 77 79 81 85 85 83 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 58 67 76 80 81 80 80 79 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 5 9 7 9 5 11 9 11 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -3 -6 -6 -3 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 252 259 274 191 197 172 173 137 171 143 151 146 65 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 127 128 129 131 132 133 135 135 135 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 105 103 104 105 108 108 110 111 111 111 112 110 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.8 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -56.9 -56.1 -56.1 -55.7 -56.1 -55.4 -55.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 55 55 53 48 44 42 45 45 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 13 15 18 18 18 19 21 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -69 -73 -68 -70 -67 -62 -63 -66 -56 -53 -63 -84 200 MB DIV -3 -1 -10 -11 -3 -27 -26 -14 12 9 -2 -10 -11 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1653 1652 1651 1672 1692 1751 1840 1855 1831 1801 1751 1670 1556 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.1 32.1 32.0 31.8 31.3 30.5 30.3 30.4 30.6 31.0 31.7 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 50.1 49.8 49.5 49.3 49.0 48.8 48.7 49.1 50.0 50.7 51.3 51.9 52.5 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 12 13 15 16 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 6. 9. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 27. 32. 34. 36. 40. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.0 50.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.27 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 296.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.65 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 70.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 17.0% 13.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 18.7% 12.8% 8.4% 2.6% 2.8% 4.4% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 11.9% 8.9% 5.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/24/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 55 58 65 72 77 79 81 85 85 83 18HR AGO 45 44 47 51 54 61 68 73 75 77 81 81 79 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 55 62 67 69 71 75 75 73 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 52 57 59 61 65 65 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT