* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 46 50 54 60 68 75 77 81 86 87 88 V (KT) LAND 40 42 46 50 54 60 68 75 77 81 86 87 88 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 50 54 61 69 76 77 77 78 78 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 3 6 8 7 6 1 5 5 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -2 -5 -8 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 5 3 SHEAR DIR 232 254 260 267 200 229 230 315 60 270 213 241 306 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 128 128 128 127 126 127 128 129 130 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 104 105 105 106 104 103 104 105 106 107 107 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.6 -56.1 -56.6 -56.6 -56.7 -56.5 -56.7 -56.2 -55.8 -55.4 -55.5 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 54 56 57 49 43 39 39 40 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 14 14 14 15 17 17 18 20 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -54 -64 -69 -64 -69 -71 -70 -79 -70 -63 -58 -57 200 MB DIV 5 7 -3 -12 1 -11 -44 -18 -4 17 12 7 -6 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1659 1646 1634 1655 1678 1755 1843 1887 1932 1956 1961 1914 1825 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.2 32.3 32.2 32.1 31.6 31.0 30.7 30.3 30.0 29.8 30.1 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 49.4 49.2 48.6 48.1 47.1 46.2 45.8 45.7 46.0 46.6 47.2 47.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 5 4 5 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 20. 28. 35. 37. 41. 46. 47. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 32.0 49.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.91 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.33 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 246.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 37.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.4% 12.5% 8.2% 7.8% 13.3% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 15.1% 9.5% 4.9% 1.5% 2.3% 3.8% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 10.2% 7.3% 4.4% 3.1% 5.2% 6.5% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/23/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 46 50 54 60 68 75 77 81 86 87 88 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 51 57 65 72 74 78 83 84 85 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 50 58 65 67 71 76 77 78 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 40 48 55 57 61 66 67 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT