* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/23/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 49 53 57 59 60 61 61 60 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 49 53 57 59 60 61 61 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 49 55 62 65 67 68 67 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 8 6 8 11 13 10 15 14 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -3 -2 -5 -6 -6 -5 -6 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 333 60 204 239 251 207 269 238 263 249 265 252 261 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 128 127 127 126 124 123 122 122 124 125 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 105 105 105 105 103 102 102 102 103 103 106 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.8 -56.2 -56.6 -56.8 -57.1 -57.2 -56.9 -56.8 -56.9 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 58 55 55 56 59 57 50 46 41 40 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -55 -67 -72 -78 -70 -74 -90 -91 -88 -58 -68 -72 200 MB DIV -1 11 8 0 3 -5 -29 -45 -31 -16 -9 0 -13 700-850 TADV 3 0 2 2 0 -1 0 2 0 1 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1722 1693 1665 1670 1676 1734 1817 1893 1974 2047 2122 2125 2081 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.8 32.1 32.2 32.2 32.0 31.6 31.2 30.7 30.1 29.3 29.1 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 48.9 48.7 48.2 47.7 46.3 45.0 44.0 43.2 42.9 43.1 43.6 44.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 7 7 6 4 2 5 5 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.5 49.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.92 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.38 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 202.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 73.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 16.5% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 15.1% 9.4% 4.8% 2.0% 2.6% 1.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 10.6% 7.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/23/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 41 44 49 53 57 59 60 61 61 60 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 42 47 51 55 57 58 59 59 58 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 42 46 50 52 53 54 54 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 37 41 43 44 45 45 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT