* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/23/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 44 46 50 54 56 57 58 58 59 59 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 44 46 50 54 56 57 58 58 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 46 51 56 62 66 68 69 69 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 2 5 9 2 12 8 17 9 14 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 -2 -3 -3 -6 -5 -6 -3 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 313 355 46 241 252 297 248 264 265 255 266 251 248 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 127 126 126 125 124 122 122 120 122 124 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 108 104 102 104 104 103 102 101 99 100 103 107 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.5 -55.7 -55.7 -55.7 -56.3 -56.6 -57.0 -57.0 -57.1 -56.9 -57.2 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 55 56 58 60 56 50 48 44 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -57 -62 -68 -74 -90 -79 -94 -119 -105 -95 -79 -91 200 MB DIV -12 3 6 11 4 -19 -1 -42 -38 -25 -23 -19 -17 700-850 TADV 5 2 -1 3 2 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 3 LAND (KM) 1758 1707 1656 1653 1650 1691 1768 1845 1938 1999 2054 2085 2104 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.7 32.2 32.3 32.4 32.3 32.0 31.7 31.2 30.8 30.3 29.8 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 48.8 48.6 48.3 47.9 46.7 45.2 43.9 42.8 42.3 42.2 42.7 43.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 4 6 6 5 4 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 13 2 2 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.2 49.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.94 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.38 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 206.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 78.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 18.5% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 28.0% 19.9% 13.0% 5.3% 4.7% 2.7% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 15.6% 11.6% 4.3% 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/23/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/23/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 44 46 50 54 56 57 58 58 59 59 18HR AGO 35 34 36 40 42 46 50 52 53 54 54 55 55 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 41 45 47 48 49 49 50 50 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 35 37 38 39 39 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT