* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/22/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 45 50 53 57 58 58 57 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 45 50 53 57 58 58 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 46 53 60 65 67 65 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 6 3 8 8 9 14 17 23 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 0 -3 -6 -6 -6 -5 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 28 7 356 6 265 265 216 276 251 273 265 277 270 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 130 129 128 125 124 122 122 122 121 120 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 110 108 106 106 105 105 104 104 104 103 103 105 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -56.2 -56.6 -56.7 -56.9 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 54 57 58 56 56 57 58 57 51 49 46 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -43 -53 -61 -69 -89 -84 -92 -101 -88 -70 -29 -26 200 MB DIV 6 -15 5 -3 16 -9 -15 -29 -21 -32 -21 -22 -11 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 -1 1 0 0 1 2 0 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1835 1767 1714 1674 1652 1675 1737 1873 2010 2153 2298 2225 2214 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.1 31.6 32.0 32.3 32.4 32.4 31.8 31.2 30.5 29.5 28.3 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 49.1 49.0 48.8 48.3 46.9 44.9 42.9 41.1 39.5 38.3 37.9 38.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 7 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 10 9 7 4 1 1 5 2 2 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 23. 27. 28. 28. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.5 49.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/22/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.91 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.45 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 176.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 32.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.2% 13.1% 8.3% 7.9% 12.9% 15.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 20.7% 12.8% 6.6% 2.2% 6.1% 4.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 12.3% 8.6% 5.0% 3.4% 6.4% 6.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/22/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/22/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 45 50 53 57 58 58 57 56 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 42 47 50 54 55 55 54 53 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 41 44 48 49 49 48 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 33 36 40 41 41 40 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT