* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 40 45 48 48 48 48 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 40 45 48 48 48 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 36 42 47 50 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 8 7 10 4 6 22 18 27 23 28 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 3 0 0 -2 -9 -4 -6 -2 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 84 114 121 56 71 153 213 247 264 276 286 290 296 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 131 129 124 122 118 117 117 115 111 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 114 111 108 103 103 102 102 102 99 95 93 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.7 -55.7 -56.1 -56.4 -56.7 -57.3 -57.1 -57.1 -56.9 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 56 58 58 60 59 59 58 54 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -11 -22 -35 -33 -56 -65 -84 -97 -73 -35 -40 -35 200 MB DIV 6 18 1 -9 -22 -10 10 -5 -28 -21 -51 -36 -32 700-850 TADV 9 6 8 5 0 -1 0 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2177 2051 1936 1839 1766 1668 1648 1754 1938 2165 1995 1835 1747 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.9 29.9 30.8 31.5 32.6 33.3 33.3 32.9 32.1 31.2 30.3 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 46.6 46.9 47.2 47.2 47.1 46.4 44.8 42.2 39.2 36.4 34.4 33.0 32.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 6 9 12 13 11 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 8 7 4 8 3 0 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. 4. -0. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 23. 23. 23. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.8 46.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.54 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.4% 11.8% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 8.5% 4.7% 1.5% 0.6% 1.4% 1.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.7% 5.5% 3.0% 0.2% 0.5% 4.9% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/21/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 35 40 45 48 48 48 48 47 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 33 38 43 46 46 46 46 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 33 38 41 41 41 41 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 31 34 34 34 34 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT