* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 41 43 44 47 49 48 46 43 40 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 41 43 44 47 49 48 46 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 38 38 39 41 44 46 48 49 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 12 11 14 5 12 9 13 25 28 40 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 2 0 0 4 0 -2 -6 -5 -5 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 283 296 287 284 290 348 348 304 291 262 268 263 277 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.5 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 135 138 136 132 123 118 118 117 115 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 122 129 135 130 118 106 103 103 101 99 97 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.7 -56.0 -56.2 -56.5 -56.4 -56.9 -56.9 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 52 53 60 56 52 51 47 48 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 8 9 9 7 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 38 48 63 71 75 46 -12 -40 -49 -84 -69 -62 -21 200 MB DIV 29 28 25 4 37 21 19 0 -1 -3 -16 -23 -29 700-850 TADV 6 9 9 12 9 12 3 -3 0 -10 -5 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 1599 1639 1727 1856 2040 2246 1914 1761 1839 2089 2102 1939 1814 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 19.2 20.4 22.2 26.7 30.5 32.6 33.1 32.2 30.8 29.5 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 46.4 46.4 46.0 45.8 45.7 45.8 45.6 43.7 40.8 37.6 35.6 34.4 33.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 10 15 20 22 16 12 13 13 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 18 17 19 16 7 8 4 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -0. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.1 46.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.51 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 271.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 17.5% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.5% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/20/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 39 40 41 43 44 47 49 48 46 43 40 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 41 43 44 47 49 48 46 43 40 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 40 41 44 46 45 43 40 37 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 34 37 39 38 36 33 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT