* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 41 43 44 45 49 50 50 49 44 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 41 43 44 45 49 50 50 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 40 39 40 42 45 48 52 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 17 17 18 13 18 5 13 22 27 30 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 5 0 0 3 0 1 -7 -6 -7 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 288 273 278 270 282 299 303 329 284 251 264 267 277 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 26.9 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 132 134 135 135 134 125 118 118 114 106 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 123 127 130 128 121 110 105 106 101 92 88 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.6 -56.1 -56.4 -56.8 -56.9 -57.2 -57.3 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 54 57 59 58 57 54 51 46 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 25 32 48 69 64 48 -11 -29 -42 -73 -58 -46 -7 200 MB DIV 30 39 32 23 3 60 20 37 -2 20 0 -2 -30 700-850 TADV 6 8 13 11 11 11 12 -9 0 -12 -7 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1628 1692 1790 1923 2073 2232 1972 1773 1849 2128 1843 1613 1521 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.7 22.2 26.1 29.9 32.4 33.2 32.7 31.5 30.2 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 45.6 45.7 45.3 45.0 45.0 45.7 45.8 43.9 40.4 36.1 32.5 30.5 29.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 11 14 17 20 16 15 17 18 14 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 17 17 18 18 7 10 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 10. 10. 9. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.0 45.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.85 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.50 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 260.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 99.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.4% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.9% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.5% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/20/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 41 41 43 44 45 49 50 50 49 44 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 40 42 43 44 48 49 49 48 43 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 38 39 40 44 45 45 44 39 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 33 34 38 39 39 38 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT