* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 25 23 22 21 20 19 20 21 22 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 25 23 22 21 20 19 20 21 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 26 24 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 36 29 28 28 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 8 12 12 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 300 304 298 299 286 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 135 133 132 131 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 128 125 123 122 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 50 51 53 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -12 -8 -2 4 0 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 49 83 85 64 38 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 5 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1591 1588 1586 1604 1626 1702 1804 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.6 17.2 18.6 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.7 42.4 43.2 43.7 44.3 45.3 46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 19 26 33 29 13 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 847 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -13. -16. -20. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 41.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 233.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 69.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/18/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 25 23 22 21 20 19 20 21 22 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 25 23 22 21 20 19 20 21 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 23 21 20 19 18 17 18 19 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT