* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 38 33 27 27 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 8 12 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 297 302 300 296 293 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 135 135 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 132 129 128 127 124 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 48 51 52 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -22 -20 -16 -9 -3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 10 43 76 69 39 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 1 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1632 1610 1595 1596 1596 1623 1711 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.1 17.3 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.2 41.1 41.9 42.6 43.3 44.5 45.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 19 19 24 25 21 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. -18. -22. -26. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -15. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 40.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 230.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 49.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 27 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 27 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT