* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 30 28 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 30 28 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 30 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 22 26 31 32 28 33 33 14 18 32 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 2 -1 1 12 8 4 0 4 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 299 293 286 283 288 306 301 297 282 309 347 1 354 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 144 143 142 138 135 133 129 129 131 135 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 139 139 139 132 128 127 122 120 122 126 132 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -55.0 -54.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 48 50 50 55 57 55 54 54 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -10 -13 -24 -28 -23 -20 -11 -9 -4 0 -20 -38 200 MB DIV -43 -50 -59 -46 -17 47 57 53 59 7 -7 -13 -47 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -7 -5 -3 -1 2 4 5 8 8 5 9 LAND (KM) 1906 1849 1793 1736 1684 1610 1565 1545 1559 1560 1508 1396 1262 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.5 15.2 16.3 17.6 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 36.3 36.9 37.6 38.4 39.3 41.1 42.6 44.3 46.2 48.1 49.8 51.8 53.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 9 10 9 9 11 11 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 14 22 29 19 24 27 23 15 16 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -20. -16. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 36.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -43.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 245.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 57.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/17/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 32 30 28 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 32 30 28 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 27 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT