* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 32 29 28 25 22 21 25 28 29 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 32 29 28 25 22 21 25 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 29 26 22 19 16 15 16 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 22 26 29 33 26 29 28 12 8 22 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 1 0 0 8 8 5 3 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 322 303 297 291 289 295 286 283 277 276 354 8 10 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 143 143 139 136 134 131 130 130 134 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 138 138 139 135 130 128 124 122 122 127 132 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.9 -54.3 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 48 48 50 57 63 63 58 60 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -17 -11 -12 -25 -35 -22 -22 -12 -5 10 -9 -19 200 MB DIV -39 -48 -50 -59 -40 6 77 58 63 40 18 30 -9 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -5 -5 -2 1 4 3 4 7 7 8 LAND (KM) 1910 1956 1893 1832 1773 1671 1591 1547 1508 1485 1462 1406 1299 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.6 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 35.8 36.5 37.3 38.1 39.9 41.7 43.4 45.2 46.9 48.7 50.7 52.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 10 13 19 31 18 27 30 24 17 20 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -13. -14. -10. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 35.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -47.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 243.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 37.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/17/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 33 32 29 28 25 22 21 25 28 29 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 31 28 27 24 21 20 24 27 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 26 25 22 19 18 22 25 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT