* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 33 31 29 27 25 27 29 30 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 33 31 29 27 25 27 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 34 33 30 26 22 19 17 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 14 16 20 28 34 31 29 26 12 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 2 3 0 0 8 6 3 2 1 5 SHEAR DIR 345 324 305 295 289 283 298 289 287 281 302 353 359 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 143 143 142 138 134 131 130 130 132 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 136 138 138 138 133 129 124 121 122 123 129 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 54 51 52 53 63 62 57 56 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -18 -12 -4 -5 -24 -23 -17 -8 6 21 6 -3 200 MB DIV -13 -26 -43 -43 -36 -11 35 96 42 41 25 5 -7 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 -1 -5 -3 0 6 6 3 6 6 4 LAND (KM) 1858 1922 1947 1886 1826 1716 1632 1591 1566 1539 1509 1462 1320 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.7 14.5 15.5 16.6 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.2 35.8 36.5 37.3 39.0 40.8 42.6 44.4 46.2 47.9 49.9 52.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 10 13 27 20 24 25 26 17 17 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -14. -14. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -13. -14. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -8. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.8 34.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 216.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.72 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 5.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/17/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 35 33 31 29 27 25 27 29 30 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 32 30 28 26 24 26 28 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 29 27 25 23 21 23 25 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 23 21 19 17 15 17 19 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT