* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 41 38 37 33 30 31 33 34 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 41 38 37 33 30 31 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 39 37 33 29 25 22 21 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 11 13 23 34 29 31 27 13 9 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 2 -3 5 7 3 2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 339 346 327 298 284 287 293 289 280 287 274 357 11 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 142 142 143 140 134 133 130 129 131 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 136 136 137 139 136 130 127 122 121 122 124 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 55 56 52 51 59 61 57 54 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -13 -18 -11 -7 -19 -33 -26 -17 0 18 19 8 200 MB DIV 0 3 -11 -24 -27 -2 -1 70 72 44 40 -6 -7 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 -1 -4 -3 3 7 5 5 6 7 LAND (KM) 1787 1851 1915 1946 1891 1791 1695 1625 1577 1532 1482 1450 1390 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.4 14.2 15.2 16.2 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.9 34.5 35.1 35.8 36.4 37.9 39.7 41.7 43.7 45.6 47.2 49.0 50.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 9 10 11 10 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 7 8 17 31 18 26 28 22 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -11. -12. -14. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 2. -2. -5. -4. -2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.6 33.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.65 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 201.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 39.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.7% 9.9% 6.7% 0.0% 10.4% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 5.5% 2.9% 1.5% 0.5% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.3% 4.3% 2.7% 0.2% 4.2% 3.1% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 41 41 38 37 33 30 31 33 34 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 38 35 34 30 27 28 30 31 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 30 29 25 22 23 25 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 23 22 18 15 16 18 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT