* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142017 09/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 44 47 46 44 40 35 32 34 39 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 44 47 46 44 40 35 32 34 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 42 41 39 34 29 24 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 11 12 16 30 35 33 32 20 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 3 2 4 -3 1 8 8 7 0 4 SHEAR DIR 339 349 350 332 315 285 285 293 277 274 265 226 339 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 142 143 142 137 134 132 130 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 135 134 136 139 139 132 128 124 121 122 123 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -55.1 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 56 54 52 53 54 66 64 58 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -16 -12 -16 -15 -6 -23 -34 -28 -17 -9 -11 1 200 MB DIV 0 5 3 7 0 -17 -15 27 85 66 81 18 4 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 6 8 7 11 12 LAND (KM) 1671 1746 1821 1885 1949 1863 1750 1670 1627 1596 1571 1527 1469 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.6 16.5 17.3 17.8 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.5 34.2 34.8 35.4 36.7 38.6 40.4 42.2 43.8 45.4 47.3 49.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 8 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 8 8 10 22 20 22 25 22 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -7. -11. -12. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 12. 9. 5. 0. -3. -1. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 32.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.61 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 194.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.2% 10.1% 6.6% 0.0% 10.9% 9.6% 7.3% Logistic: 3.0% 5.6% 2.8% 1.4% 0.4% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.0% 4.5% 2.7% 0.1% 5.1% 3.7% 2.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 42 44 47 46 44 40 35 32 34 39 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 43 42 40 36 31 28 30 35 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 38 37 35 31 26 23 25 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 29 27 23 18 15 17 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT