* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142017 09/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 41 43 42 39 36 34 34 34 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 41 43 42 39 36 34 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 33 33 32 29 25 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 18 19 17 11 18 31 31 38 37 30 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -1 -2 -1 5 5 2 4 7 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 334 340 343 340 330 296 278 282 283 290 278 256 258 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 142 142 143 140 135 133 129 128 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 136 136 135 137 136 139 137 132 127 121 118 118 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 58 60 58 55 53 53 54 58 61 59 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 8 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -21 -12 -7 -7 -13 -17 -34 -30 -21 -5 0 4 200 MB DIV 30 -5 5 12 12 8 -6 -3 57 73 62 52 19 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 2 8 5 9 10 LAND (KM) 1563 1636 1710 1784 1858 1943 1844 1743 1656 1603 1585 1597 1614 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.4 14.3 15.4 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 31.8 32.5 33.2 33.9 34.6 35.9 37.3 39.2 41.5 43.7 45.5 47.1 48.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 6 9 11 12 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 9 9 9 13 28 17 25 20 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -7. -9. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 13. 12. 9. 6. 4. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 31.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.46 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.71 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 166.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 9.5% 7.0% 4.5% 0.0% 8.6% 7.6% 7.5% Logistic: 1.6% 3.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.5% 2.9% 1.7% 0.0% 3.8% 2.9% 2.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 35 37 41 43 42 39 36 34 34 34 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 35 39 41 40 37 34 32 32 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 37 36 33 30 28 28 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 28 27 24 21 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT