* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142017 09/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 31 32 33 34 34 31 26 24 25 24 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 31 32 33 34 34 31 26 24 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 21 24 24 23 29 34 37 35 32 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 1 -2 -2 0 1 0 4 6 6 6 -1 SHEAR DIR 325 335 338 338 334 323 296 289 286 282 287 269 263 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 141 142 143 141 135 132 132 129 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 135 134 134 136 139 138 130 126 125 122 121 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 58 58 51 52 54 59 65 64 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -26 -24 -12 -4 -16 -15 -31 -44 -40 -38 -20 -1 200 MB DIV 38 19 -8 8 17 -4 -10 4 18 43 45 84 10 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 6 7 5 5 LAND (KM) 1388 1471 1555 1618 1682 1809 1966 1870 1771 1706 1646 1623 1648 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.5 14.2 15.2 16.2 17.0 18.0 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 30.2 31.0 31.8 32.4 33.0 34.2 35.7 37.6 39.7 41.8 43.7 45.7 47.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 12 11 10 12 14 16 17 22 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -6. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 30.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.37 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 168.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 10.9% 8.3% 5.4% 4.2% 8.4% 5.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.0% 2.9% 1.8% 1.4% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/16/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 31 32 33 34 34 31 26 24 25 24 18HR AGO 30 29 29 31 32 33 34 34 31 26 24 25 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 30 31 31 28 23 21 22 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 23 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT