* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142017 09/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 32 35 37 35 32 28 26 26 27 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 32 35 37 35 32 28 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 18 19 18 23 16 24 33 31 29 30 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 2 -2 -1 0 5 4 5 7 11 5 2 SHEAR DIR 317 325 338 336 328 332 284 277 271 271 290 282 267 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 141 141 141 143 142 140 134 133 131 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 137 136 135 135 134 138 138 136 130 127 125 122 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.8 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 59 59 54 51 55 56 63 66 63 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 10 9 8 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -25 -25 -21 -16 -17 -20 -24 -39 -42 -39 -21 -15 200 MB DIV 20 41 31 1 6 2 -1 13 -13 29 39 65 22 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 -1 1 7 4 5 LAND (KM) 1278 1359 1441 1510 1578 1696 1829 1974 1831 1726 1657 1596 1579 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 17.0 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 29.1 29.9 30.7 31.3 32.0 33.1 34.4 36.2 38.3 40.4 42.4 44.5 46.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 6 6 6 8 10 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 16 15 13 9 9 14 18 17 22 28 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 5. 2. -2. -4. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 29.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.52 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 167.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 13.1% 9.9% 6.2% 5.1% 9.6% 8.3% 7.8% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.0% 3.6% 2.1% 1.7% 3.4% 2.9% 2.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 30 31 32 35 37 35 32 28 26 26 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 35 37 35 32 28 26 26 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 31 33 31 28 24 22 22 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 26 24 21 17 15 15 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT