* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142017 09/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 43 48 56 58 58 57 54 52 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 43 48 56 58 58 57 54 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 39 44 48 51 53 52 48 42 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 4 6 13 15 12 4 13 26 34 34 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 6 3 0 0 0 9 7 -1 -2 2 5 SHEAR DIR 6 21 43 352 350 1 340 273 272 299 296 304 287 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 142 142 141 139 138 140 142 147 147 143 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 147 141 139 138 133 133 137 141 147 147 143 138 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -54.2 -53.4 -54.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 64 65 60 59 59 57 58 63 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 14 14 15 13 13 12 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -49 -46 -33 -36 -27 -23 -24 -23 -26 -22 -28 -21 200 MB DIV 40 22 22 61 35 -39 -5 8 -18 -11 9 23 43 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -4 -5 -3 0 3 LAND (KM) 1082 1189 1290 1376 1463 1588 1683 1825 1880 1708 1567 1442 1342 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 26.6 27.7 28.8 29.6 30.5 31.7 32.6 34.0 35.9 38.0 40.1 42.5 45.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 9 8 7 5 6 8 10 11 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 18 28 29 25 16 11 8 9 18 21 15 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 26. 28. 28. 27. 24. 22. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 26.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 158.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 FOURTEEN 09/15/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 43 48 56 58 58 57 54 52 51 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 40 45 53 55 55 54 51 49 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 34 39 47 49 49 48 45 43 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 30 38 40 40 39 36 34 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT