* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 49 41 35 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 45 35 31 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 46 35 31 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 23 15 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 20 11 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 235 267 276 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.6 16.7 17.9 19.0 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 75 76 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 71 71 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.5 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 36 40 45 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 20 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 68 71 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 22 1 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -104 -126 -49 -23 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 117 -65 -207 -87 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.3 40.4 41.5 42.1 42.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 10.5 8.0 5.5 3.8 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 22 18 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 36 CX,CY: 31/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -9. -11. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -19. -25. -33. -41. -49. -52. -54. -55. -55. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 39.3 10.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/13/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 45 35 31 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 49 45 46 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 53 45 37 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 43 35 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT