* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 60 51 42 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 66 60 46 36 33 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 66 60 53 36 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 30 31 25 34 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 16 19 9 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 245 276 285 287 297 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.2 21.1 20.2 17.7 14.6 17.9 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 89 85 77 71 76 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 84 79 73 68 70 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 27 25 31 36 40 49 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 20 16 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 11 25 26 32 27 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 6 0 5 1 37 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -84 -78 -97 -121 -87 0 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 860 536 234 -14 -194 12 -108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.7 37.8 39.0 40.2 41.9 43.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 18.3 14.9 11.5 9.0 6.5 2.6 -1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 30 26 23 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 33 CX,CY: 31/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -11. -17. -19. -23. -28. -32. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -22. -25. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -6. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -19. -28. -44. -52. -62. -68. -72. -75. -77. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 35.5 18.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 456.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/13/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 60 46 36 33 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 63 49 39 36 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 52 42 39 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 50 47 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT