* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 65 60 55 38 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 68 65 60 49 32 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 68 64 60 53 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 26 28 26 21 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 12 17 20 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 257 264 284 266 286 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 22.4 21.3 20.5 17.7 18.4 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 95 90 86 78 78 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 90 85 81 74 73 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.4 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 27 26 31 37 46 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 26 25 16 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 26 16 29 41 4 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 43 6 10 21 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -80 -76 -58 -77 -122 -27 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1136 914 575 294 -6 -102 -140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.3 36.4 37.7 39.0 41.5 43.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 22.4 18.8 15.3 12.2 9.1 4.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 31 29 28 25 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 31 CX,CY: 30/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -23. -28. -32. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. -7. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -15. -32. -44. -52. -57. -60. -62. -63. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 34.2 22.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 473.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 2( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 65 60 49 32 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 66 61 50 33 30 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 61 50 33 30 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 49 32 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT