* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 67 61 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 67 61 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 72 69 65 60 47 35 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 20 24 29 32 31 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 9 10 7 19 -1 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 252 260 275 313 340 325 355 357 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.4 22.6 22.6 21.8 22.1 22.5 21.2 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 100 94 94 89 89 90 83 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 94 88 86 81 79 79 74 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 33 28 26 29 33 41 40 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 27 29 27 22 14 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 47 27 19 8 6 -5 75 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 35 45 23 -11 -7 2 -4 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -42 -92 -69 -30 -42 -30 -15 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1381 1158 955 727 483 160 69 36 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.3 35.0 35.5 35.9 36.2 36.5 36.9 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 25.9 22.6 19.4 16.8 14.1 10.3 7.2 4.7 2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 28 25 22 19 14 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 30 CX,CY: 28/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -18. -24. -30. -35. -38. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -5. -14. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -14. -30. -48. -63. -70. -76. -80. -83. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 33.5 25.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 549.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 70 67 61 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 71 68 62 46 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 62 46 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 59 43 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT