* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 67 63 50 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 67 63 50 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 73 70 67 63 51 37 28 23 20 19 20 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 22 24 32 38 34 33 26 14 8 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 11 9 10 7 9 4 9 1 0 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 245 218 260 273 277 333 346 336 355 8 60 163 177 SST (C) 24.5 24.3 23.6 23.1 22.5 22.4 22.8 23.0 23.1 24.1 24.6 24.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 100 97 92 89 89 89 90 97 102 102 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 99 93 90 84 79 78 77 78 84 89 91 98 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 47 41 35 29 26 27 23 20 19 15 14 15 16 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 27 29 29 27 18 11 9 6 3 1 14 850 MB ENV VOR 9 56 35 22 12 13 -37 -60 10 51 48 40 3 200 MB DIV 28 39 41 32 23 -11 -4 -36 -29 -30 -14 -10 -1 700-850 TADV -21 -49 -79 -52 -35 -39 -17 -29 -18 -27 -22 -27 -10 LAND (KM) 1642 1417 1201 1015 794 506 323 227 218 294 232 351 539 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.3 34.0 34.4 34.8 34.7 33.7 32.7 31.8 30.8 29.7 28.7 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 29.6 26.5 23.4 20.5 17.6 14.0 12.4 12.0 12.2 13.0 14.2 16.5 19.5 STM SPEED (KT) 27 27 26 24 19 11 6 5 5 7 9 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 27 CX,CY: 24/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -23. -29. -34. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -18. -16. -14. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -12. -22. -26. -31. -37. -40. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -25. -46. -64. -73. -76. -79. -77. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 32.6 29.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 518.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 70 67 63 50 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 71 68 64 51 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 64 51 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 48 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT