* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 79 75 72 61 45 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 81 79 75 72 61 45 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 80 79 76 72 62 48 35 28 25 23 22 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 17 23 37 37 25 21 11 8 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 12 8 7 0 8 3 1 0 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 265 234 216 267 282 311 345 352 356 46 80 150 205 SST (C) 24.4 24.3 24.2 23.4 23.3 23.1 23.4 23.8 23.6 23.8 24.2 25.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 104 100 97 93 92 94 94 97 100 107 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 98 94 90 82 80 81 82 86 91 97 98 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.1 -54.5 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 5 5 700-500 MB RH 51 48 42 36 31 23 21 21 15 15 14 15 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 27 28 28 25 13 11 8 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 5 48 41 29 17 -37 -70 -42 -26 -38 -52 -68 200 MB DIV 16 28 45 30 24 -17 -28 -16 -33 -36 -20 -3 7 700-850 TADV -9 -20 -46 -54 -43 -45 -39 -20 -29 -12 -10 -8 0 LAND (KM) 1840 1618 1400 1167 956 646 509 464 410 426 546 790 1099 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.1 32.7 33.3 33.8 33.9 33.0 32.0 31.0 29.8 28.3 27.9 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 32.5 29.6 26.7 23.5 20.3 16.3 15.1 14.8 15.3 16.8 19.3 22.3 25.6 STM SPEED (KT) 25 25 26 27 22 11 6 5 7 11 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 24 CX,CY: 22/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -18. -25. -31. -36. -39. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -10. -11. -12. -10. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -7. -20. -25. -30. -38. -41. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -5. -8. -19. -35. -57. -66. -71. -77. -78. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.4 32.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 527.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 1.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 4( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 81 79 75 72 61 45 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 77 73 70 59 43 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 72 69 58 42 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 67 56 40 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT