* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 82 81 77 69 55 35 22 18 18 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 80 82 82 81 77 69 55 35 22 18 18 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 82 81 78 75 67 55 42 33 31 30 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 8 15 24 37 30 18 17 6 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 10 10 11 6 8 4 0 12 7 9 SHEAR DIR 252 273 244 226 267 291 337 351 7 26 84 82 161 SST (C) 25.3 24.5 24.4 24.3 23.3 23.2 23.6 23.7 23.6 23.8 24.1 25.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 112 106 105 105 98 95 94 94 94 95 98 107 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 98 99 98 91 86 82 81 83 83 87 97 101 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 48 51 49 43 35 25 22 19 18 16 14 16 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 28 27 27 25 17 11 11 13 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -29 9 38 38 21 14 -31 -38 -22 -10 -29 -23 200 MB DIV 13 6 36 58 32 44 -18 -17 -42 -25 -13 -15 7 700-850 TADV 6 -11 -23 -48 -48 -22 -34 -21 -17 -2 -1 11 0 LAND (KM) 2049 1844 1659 1433 1223 840 597 496 431 491 566 784 1094 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.2 32.0 32.6 33.2 33.5 32.9 31.8 30.5 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 32.7 30.1 27.1 24.2 18.9 16.1 15.5 16.3 17.7 19.1 21.9 25.7 STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 25 26 24 17 8 6 8 7 10 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 21 CX,CY: 19/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -23. -29. -35. -38. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -16. -24. -26. -25. -27. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -25. -45. -58. -62. -62. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.4 35.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 499.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 5.0% 4.9% 2.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 1.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 6( 20) 3( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 82 81 77 69 55 35 22 18 18 17 DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 79 78 74 66 52 32 19 15 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 71 63 49 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 58 44 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT