* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 78 78 69 55 39 29 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 78 78 69 55 39 29 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 77 77 76 73 66 56 46 38 33 31 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 5 7 7 19 27 29 24 18 16 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 5 7 12 11 2 3 6 8 4 SHEAR DIR 206 228 229 225 225 290 313 344 11 39 74 89 140 SST (C) 25.6 25.4 24.6 24.3 24.4 23.5 23.2 23.5 23.7 23.8 24.1 25.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 106 105 105 98 93 93 94 95 98 106 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 99 98 98 89 82 81 82 83 87 96 102 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 45 47 51 49 43 31 26 25 20 20 21 25 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 30 30 29 26 21 16 13 10 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -39 -29 0 24 27 6 -8 -12 -7 -8 -16 -3 200 MB DIV 23 5 13 46 61 11 -30 -43 -30 -17 -16 -5 10 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -13 -16 -55 -46 -26 -8 -4 0 0 8 10 LAND (KM) 2224 2045 1861 1645 1431 1035 767 609 522 545 597 772 1047 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.3 31.1 31.7 32.3 33.2 33.0 32.0 30.6 29.5 28.8 27.9 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 37.5 35.2 32.9 30.1 27.3 21.9 18.4 17.2 17.4 18.4 19.6 22.1 25.6 STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 23 25 24 19 10 6 7 7 9 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -29. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -18. -23. -28. -33. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. -6. -20. -36. -46. -55. -61. -63. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.5 37.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 472.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.44 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 18.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 7.6% 6.6% 2.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 8.8% 7.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 6( 16) 3( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 78 78 78 69 55 39 29 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 75 75 75 66 52 36 26 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 71 62 48 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 56 42 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT