* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 73 74 70 62 48 35 27 20 18 19 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 73 74 70 62 48 35 27 20 18 19 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 71 71 71 68 60 50 40 35 31 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 9 7 8 14 24 31 22 19 15 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 0 10 11 4 3 0 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 207 204 226 239 218 267 293 345 2 34 51 102 132 SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.4 24.6 24.4 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.8 24.0 24.2 25.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 112 106 105 99 96 92 95 96 98 108 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 104 99 98 91 85 80 83 83 87 97 101 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 4 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 47 47 48 51 51 36 27 25 23 19 17 16 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 30 30 28 27 22 16 13 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -51 -36 -33 0 31 37 25 23 1 18 6 -7 200 MB DIV 12 13 14 23 54 35 18 -20 -28 -22 -11 -5 11 700-850 TADV 1 -3 2 -4 -25 -62 -31 -17 -4 12 21 13 23 LAND (KM) 2329 2218 2076 1866 1676 1215 901 735 628 603 619 817 1106 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.6 30.4 31.1 31.8 32.7 32.9 32.2 30.9 29.7 28.9 28.1 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 39.3 37.4 35.5 32.9 30.4 24.4 20.4 18.8 18.5 19.0 19.8 22.5 26.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 21 23 24 21 12 7 7 6 8 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 14 CX,CY: 12/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -11. -19. -25. -32. -34. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. -8. -22. -35. -43. -50. -52. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.8 39.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 18.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 5.3% 4.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 7.9% 7.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 5( 12) 4( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 72 73 74 70 62 48 35 27 20 18 19 18HR AGO 70 69 70 71 72 68 60 46 33 25 18 16 17 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 68 64 56 42 29 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 57 49 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT