* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 74 74 73 66 53 40 31 28 24 23 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 74 74 73 66 53 40 31 28 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 73 73 70 64 55 45 39 35 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 12 9 8 7 18 34 21 17 12 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 -1 0 1 11 11 3 8 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 225 182 170 211 229 267 302 318 344 18 54 105 148 SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.1 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 113 112 109 107 101 96 98 101 104 109 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 103 104 102 99 90 83 84 87 91 98 102 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 6 3 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 51 51 44 34 29 26 21 18 17 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 32 31 30 27 23 17 12 11 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -56 -51 -38 -35 29 30 33 26 3 10 9 7 200 MB DIV 0 16 13 16 17 61 21 -38 -23 -22 -18 3 5 700-850 TADV 6 6 3 10 3 -28 -31 -30 -24 6 10 13 7 LAND (KM) 2339 2344 2236 2064 1887 1448 1094 882 780 742 734 896 1158 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.7 29.3 30.1 30.9 32.1 32.8 32.6 31.7 30.4 29.1 28.1 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.7 39.2 37.7 35.5 33.3 27.6 22.9 20.4 19.8 20.2 21.0 23.4 26.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 18 21 23 22 16 7 6 7 9 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -18. -26. -29. -35. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -4. -17. -30. -39. -42. -46. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.1 40.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 416.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.50 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 18.7% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 3.5% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 7.4% 6.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 5( 12) 4( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 73 74 74 73 66 53 40 31 28 24 23 18HR AGO 70 69 70 71 71 70 63 50 37 28 25 21 20 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 67 66 59 46 33 24 21 17 16 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 59 52 39 26 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT