* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 75 76 76 72 69 66 43 26 29 27 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 75 76 76 72 69 66 43 26 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 74 74 73 70 68 57 42 32 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 11 10 3 12 23 28 27 13 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 -2 1 5 10 2 1 3 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 288 245 157 160 195 225 285 309 339 4 24 52 170 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.4 24.6 24.9 24.0 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 115 114 112 106 107 99 98 102 107 110 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 103 104 103 99 98 87 84 88 96 99 103 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -54.3 -55.0 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 7 4 2 1 1 1 1 2 4 700-500 MB RH 45 48 49 50 49 50 38 23 23 23 20 17 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 30 32 31 31 30 32 35 21 9 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -48 -48 -45 -33 4 27 21 -56 -50 -45 -39 -11 200 MB DIV 15 4 6 7 21 59 31 -15 -4 -39 -29 -7 2 700-850 TADV 8 9 14 11 10 -6 -25 -38 -45 -29 -4 10 19 LAND (KM) 2344 2353 2366 2234 2089 1692 1283 991 813 763 830 973 1185 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.0 28.3 29.0 29.6 31.0 31.7 31.9 31.7 30.7 29.1 27.5 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 41.6 40.6 39.6 37.8 36.0 31.0 25.9 22.2 20.2 20.2 22.1 24.6 27.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 13 17 20 23 19 12 5 8 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 1. 3. -14. -30. -30. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -1. -4. -27. -44. -41. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 27.7 41.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 20.6% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 7.2% 5.6% 2.1% 0.5% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 9.3% 8.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 5( 12) 5( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 73 75 76 76 72 69 66 43 26 29 27 18HR AGO 70 69 70 72 73 73 69 66 63 40 23 26 24 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 69 69 65 62 59 36 19 22 20 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 61 57 54 51 28 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT