* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 69 71 71 70 60 51 41 35 33 32 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 69 71 71 70 60 51 41 35 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 69 69 69 66 60 54 46 40 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 6 12 6 4 14 28 24 20 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 9 6 -1 2 11 14 7 7 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 257 270 222 169 165 217 287 318 343 3 26 50 95 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.0 25.9 25.2 24.4 25.0 24.3 24.7 25.3 25.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 118 115 115 110 104 108 99 102 108 109 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 99 104 103 104 101 96 97 87 88 96 96 97 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 -54.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 7 5 3 1 1 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 43 44 48 48 49 51 44 35 31 28 25 23 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 31 30 33 30 30 25 21 16 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -35 -39 -49 -43 -33 10 6 28 27 27 44 56 200 MB DIV 8 11 -7 4 19 19 60 12 -38 -29 -22 -12 15 700-850 TADV 3 7 13 13 4 7 -21 -31 -20 -7 5 26 10 LAND (KM) 2311 2325 2339 2349 2280 1965 1571 1200 925 815 929 1035 1148 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.4 28.9 30.1 31.0 31.4 31.3 30.3 28.6 27.3 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.2 41.7 41.2 39.7 38.3 34.4 29.6 25.1 21.8 21.2 23.5 25.4 27.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 9 14 16 19 20 17 9 7 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -7. -12. -19. -25. -29. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. -5. -14. -24. -30. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.8 42.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 18.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 3.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.3% 6.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 26.0% 22.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 68 69 71 71 70 60 51 41 35 33 32 18HR AGO 65 64 66 67 69 69 68 58 49 39 33 31 30 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 64 64 63 53 44 34 28 26 25 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 57 56 46 37 27 21 19 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT