* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 69 69 70 70 61 54 46 40 39 39 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 69 69 70 70 61 54 46 40 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 66 67 68 69 68 63 58 52 47 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 1 4 10 4 7 16 20 15 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 9 10 5 0 6 15 14 3 5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 330 254 233 5 123 196 328 306 332 357 357 17 54 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.7 24.6 24.5 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 116 116 116 114 106 104 103 101 103 106 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 97 100 102 103 104 97 95 91 86 88 93 95 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.3 -54.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 4 2 1 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 41 45 46 49 52 52 50 40 33 33 32 33 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 31 31 30 30 25 22 18 15 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -13 -34 -50 -49 -34 -6 12 28 31 23 15 41 200 MB DIV -41 4 17 -17 0 6 45 29 -22 -37 -18 -7 -3 700-850 TADV 1 4 7 13 10 3 3 -27 -10 -4 -4 3 15 LAND (KM) 2269 2299 2330 2344 2361 2126 1740 1359 1030 849 843 873 961 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.3 29.6 30.9 31.3 31.2 30.6 29.9 28.9 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 42.1 41.7 40.7 39.7 36.4 31.6 27.0 23.2 21.4 21.8 22.7 24.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 6 9 13 19 21 18 12 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -7. -12. -17. -23. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 5. -4. -11. -19. -25. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.1 42.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 30.1 to 2.3 1.00 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 405.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 18.8% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 4.0% 2.9% 1.6% 0.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.6% 6.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 10.0% 7.0% 4.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 66 69 69 70 70 61 54 46 40 39 39 18HR AGO 65 64 65 68 68 69 69 60 53 45 39 38 38 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 64 65 65 56 49 41 35 34 34 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 56 56 47 40 32 26 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT