* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 67 70 70 71 69 61 53 47 45 44 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 67 70 70 71 69 61 53 47 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 67 68 69 70 67 62 56 49 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 2 2 3 3 8 7 10 16 28 22 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 12 8 6 7 0 3 5 11 5 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 321 336 256 242 228 189 231 251 295 316 338 15 77 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.7 24.8 24.4 24.7 24.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 115 115 116 116 113 106 106 100 100 102 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 98 98 98 101 105 104 98 95 87 86 88 92 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.6 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.3 -54.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 1 2 2 4 4 700-500 MB RH 38 42 46 46 49 52 52 45 38 37 35 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 29 29 32 31 32 31 26 23 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -13 -11 -37 -49 -45 -24 28 1 23 0 -8 -11 200 MB DIV -44 -49 5 7 -16 20 17 36 -14 8 -59 -24 -1 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 8 12 -3 13 -41 -36 -13 -12 -10 1 LAND (KM) 2189 2245 2301 2316 2333 2302 1979 1606 1231 980 860 831 940 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 28.4 27.9 28.0 28.0 29.0 30.4 31.6 32.3 32.2 31.3 30.3 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 42.7 42.4 42.2 41.6 41.1 38.5 34.4 29.7 24.9 21.9 21.0 21.4 23.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 5 8 16 20 21 17 9 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 0. -6. -11. -15. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 6. 4. -4. -12. -18. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.8 42.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 18.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.5% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 67 67 70 70 71 69 61 53 47 45 44 18HR AGO 65 64 65 65 68 68 69 67 59 51 45 43 42 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 64 64 65 63 55 47 41 39 38 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 58 59 57 49 41 35 33 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT