* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 62 64 65 67 69 65 59 50 40 33 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 62 64 65 67 69 65 59 50 40 33 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 64 64 65 67 68 65 61 54 45 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 7 2 2 6 10 11 10 21 37 39 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 12 10 7 4 -1 1 4 7 6 6 12 SHEAR DIR 269 289 314 319 234 223 214 261 258 296 308 338 1 SST (C) 25.3 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.7 24.0 23.9 23.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 107 112 114 115 115 117 114 111 107 101 98 93 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 97 98 98 98 103 103 102 98 91 87 79 76 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.7 -55.7 -55.5 -54.9 -54.4 -53.8 -54.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -55.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 32 33 39 43 46 50 53 56 53 43 39 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 29 30 30 32 33 30 27 24 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -5 -10 -10 -9 -50 -39 -31 27 13 2 -36 -109 200 MB DIV -28 -34 -50 -47 1 -21 28 5 63 15 8 -49 -58 700-850 TADV -3 -3 1 1 4 12 3 7 -39 -47 -19 -17 -10 LAND (KM) 1978 2075 2172 2231 2290 2333 2261 1948 1574 1216 906 782 770 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 29.9 29.0 28.5 28.0 28.2 29.5 31.1 32.6 33.4 33.3 33.4 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 42.9 42.6 42.4 42.2 40.6 37.9 33.9 28.8 24.0 20.1 18.1 17.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 5 5 10 16 21 21 18 13 5 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. -1. -4. -9. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 5. -1. -10. -20. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.7 43.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 435.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 9.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 62 64 65 67 69 65 59 50 40 33 18HR AGO 60 59 60 60 62 63 65 67 63 57 48 38 31 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 58 59 61 63 59 53 44 34 27 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 53 55 57 53 47 38 28 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT