* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 56 58 59 61 62 64 58 51 39 29 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 56 58 59 61 62 64 58 51 39 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 56 57 57 59 62 62 60 54 45 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 8 3 1 7 15 17 22 35 47 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 10 11 11 9 5 1 -2 -3 7 9 6 13 SHEAR DIR 272 250 276 292 332 351 298 254 248 274 314 322 345 SST (C) 24.9 25.1 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.4 25.8 25.5 24.6 24.6 23.8 23.1 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 104 106 112 113 114 116 113 112 106 107 99 91 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 92 97 98 97 100 101 103 98 99 89 79 77 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -55.5 -55.7 -55.3 -55.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 4 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 31 32 34 39 43 47 52 54 55 47 46 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 30 31 33 31 33 32 34 29 28 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 41 14 3 -8 -3 -19 -42 -30 -7 -20 -10 -18 -86 200 MB DIV -38 -17 -33 -51 -36 -3 21 22 21 -10 14 -10 -57 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -2 0 0 4 12 1 -14 -28 -7 -8 0 LAND (KM) 1853 1961 2069 2145 2221 2321 2295 2134 1758 1357 963 758 682 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 30.9 30.0 29.3 28.6 28.0 29.1 30.5 31.9 33.1 33.8 34.1 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.7 43.2 42.6 42.5 42.4 41.4 39.4 36.1 31.3 25.9 20.4 17.5 16.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 7 6 7 13 19 23 24 18 7 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. -2. -5. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 3. -4. -16. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.7 43.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -35.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 56 58 59 61 62 64 58 51 39 29 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 57 58 60 61 63 57 50 38 28 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 53 54 56 57 59 53 46 34 24 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 48 50 51 53 47 40 28 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT