* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 56 59 60 65 65 62 54 41 26 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 56 59 60 65 65 62 54 41 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 58 58 57 58 61 63 61 56 46 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 13 15 9 2 6 8 15 19 37 46 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 13 11 10 10 6 1 -2 -2 2 6 20 5 SHEAR DIR 287 264 244 271 303 49 328 272 273 274 303 307 327 SST (C) 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.1 25.9 24.9 24.9 23.5 22.7 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 108 112 113 114 115 115 108 110 99 91 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 92 94 98 98 97 101 105 101 103 91 81 77 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.6 -54.9 -54.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 30 31 32 33 39 48 50 54 55 51 48 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 29 30 32 33 35 33 30 27 24 19 850 MB ENV VOR 61 43 29 7 -3 -8 -40 -40 -25 -2 -41 -34 -81 200 MB DIV -30 -38 -21 -45 -58 14 -29 33 10 22 16 10 -17 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -3 -2 0 2 9 1 16 -40 -43 -43 -23 LAND (KM) 1732 1854 1976 2075 2176 2291 2307 2246 1883 1498 1120 776 592 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 31.8 30.8 29.9 29.0 28.1 28.5 29.6 31.0 32.8 34.7 35.7 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 44.2 43.6 42.9 42.7 42.5 41.9 40.5 37.7 33.2 27.8 21.7 17.4 15.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 7 5 10 17 22 26 23 13 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 4. -2. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 4. 0. -4. -10. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 10. 10. 7. -1. -14. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.7 44.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 424.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -38.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 56 56 59 60 65 65 62 54 41 26 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 54 57 58 63 63 60 52 39 24 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 54 55 60 60 57 49 36 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 48 49 54 54 51 43 30 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT